A large part of our problem is our inability to account for (seemingly) black swan events correctly. We prioritise growth over resilience because we don't respect reality. Economists pull discounting rates out of thin air (about their grandchildren's lives, too).
We suffer from a slew of cognitive biases. One is called survivorship bias. We look at the successful hedge funds and think, “Oh wow, their strategy really works”, ignoring all the dead ones. Yes, you can grow more than you should for many consecutive years. Until disaster strikes and you didn't invest enough in resilience. Our abject failure to handle COVID-19 well illustrated this perfectly.
We are about to de-globalise in a complete crash. Cannibalisation will be back in vogue. Remember: "Erst kommt das Fressen, dann kommt die Moral."
A large part of our problem is our inability to account for (seemingly) black swan events correctly. We prioritise growth over resilience because we don't respect reality. Economists pull discounting rates out of thin air (about their grandchildren's lives, too).
We suffer from a slew of cognitive biases. One is called survivorship bias. We look at the successful hedge funds and think, “Oh wow, their strategy really works”, ignoring all the dead ones. Yes, you can grow more than you should for many consecutive years. Until disaster strikes and you didn't invest enough in resilience. Our abject failure to handle COVID-19 well illustrated this perfectly.
We are about to de-globalise in a complete crash. Cannibalisation will be back in vogue. Remember: "Erst kommt das Fressen, dann kommt die Moral."
We're all trying to navigate the perfect storm.
Joseph Tainter's work is seminal and on point!
Why don't we all just support each other as best we can, while we can!
https://kevinhester.live/2017/08/08/the-myth-of-human-progress-and-the-collapse-of-complex-societies-chris-hedges/
Thank you Steve🙏