Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCVIII

Keep Calm and Carry On… Human Ingenuity and Technology Will Save Us! Part 1

Human cognition and the many psychological mechanisms that impact our species’ comprehension, emotions, and beliefs about the world are fascinating subjects, as is epistemology (aka the ‘theory of knowledge’).

Despite being mostly enthralled with biology during my late high school education and physiology during my early university years, I wandered into studying psychology for a couple of years while pursuing my second bachelor's degree before becoming more interested in human evolution and completing a Master of Arts degree in anthropology/archaeology.

It was the use of Stephen Jay Gould’s Ever Since Darwin text in an introductory psychology course that sparked my interest in human physical evolution and then a chance meeting with one of the university’s senior archaeologists to help advise on course selection within the anthropology department which steered me into that field and an eventual graduate degree that focussed on North American archaeology (working on a variety of pre/historic sites in Ontario, Canada, and Oaxaca, Mexico).

I read up on epistemology mostly on my own as a side interest while studying archaeology being exposed to some very interesting aspects in introductory psychology and anthropology courses (particularly philology and hermeneutics), and then also auditing a senior philosophy course on archaeological theory–little of which I understood having none of the fundamental background knowledge; I don’t know what the hell I was thinking by enrolling in it. (See: Decline of ‘Rationality’. Website Medium Substack)

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A handful of my Contemplations that discuss human psychology:
Despite Warnings We Have Continued Business-As-Usual and Doubled-Down On Our Avoidance Behaviours. Website Medium Substack
Avoiding 'Collapse' Awareness. Website Medium Substack
Reality is an Inconvenience to Beliefs. Website Medium Substack
Most People Don’t Want Their Illusions Destroyed. Website Medium Substack
Carbon Tunnel Vision And Resource/Energy & Ecological Blindness, Part 1, Website Medium Substack Part 2, Website Medium Substack Part 3. Website Medium Substack
Cognition and Belief Systems in a 'Collapsing' World: Part One, Website Medium Substack Part Two–Deference to Authority, Website Medium Substack Part Three–Groupthink, Website Medium Substack Part Four–Cognitive Dissonance, Website Medium Substack Part Five–Justification Hypothesis, Website Medium Substack Part Six–Sociopolitical 'Collapse' and Ecological Overshoot, Website Medium Substack

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Yes, I spent the entire 1980s in three universities (Western, McMaster, Brock) chasing a number of degrees, settling into a career in education by the end of the decade–it’s where the jobs were at the time (and this hot girl I had met was interested in that profession). Thankfully my hometown had a university, so I did not have to pay for room and board for most of the first two degrees (I got married during the second one—yes, to that hot girl—and we moved into the university’s married-students residence that was very reasonably priced, with rent being based upon income. With both of us being students, the rent was relatively low reflecting our income–we celebrate our 40th anniversary next summer).

I had a relatively good-paying job working part-time in a grocery store so I was able to pay for much of this self-indulgence, working 20-24 hours a week on top of my classes (although I did accumulate some student loans along the way as well that I paid off quickly after graduating–interest rates were about 14% at the time that I had to start repaying them–with the help of working part-time in The Beer Store on top of my working full time as a classroom teacher). Thank the stars for youthful energy, especially those 4 months or so early in my university days that I spent working full-time from 10 p.m. to 6:30 a.m. stocking shelves before heading home for a quick shower and then off to the university for my physiology classes that began at 8:30 a.m.–typically sleeping from about 2-3 p.m., until 9 p.m..

Anyways, I raise this fascination with psychology because as humanity’s large, complex societies continue their journey along the Seneca Cliff of ‘collapse’, one should expect not only a considerable increase in the symptoms that signal societal decline/simplification, but more importantly from a human psychological perspective a significant and concomitant shift in the beliefs and human responses (emotional and behavioural) that accompany the increased tension that arises from the ecological and societal deterioration that is occurring and becoming more obvious and difficult, if not impossible, to ignore.

Humans are, if nothing else, a highly ‘intelligent’ species engaged in enormously complex thinking and behaviours to reduce/avoid our anxiety/stress (pain) and increase our optimism/positive ‘vibes’ (pleasure). And, given our story-telling nature, we often do this via the tales we tell ourselves and others, with these stories influencing every aspect of our cognition, beliefs, emotions, and actions–and not always in a positively adaptive manner.

Oftentimes, it would appear, we employ maladaptive strategies but believe they are helpful and create a variety of narratives to support and defend them–even if there is overwhelming evidence that they are ill-informed, quite flawed, and in many cases defy biological processes, geological limitations, and physical laws. And we are, unfortunately, helped along these ‘destructive’ pathways by members of our own species who leverage perceived crises and our fear and anxiety about them to expand their personal wealth and power. [Note: I am using ‘we’, ‘our’, ‘us’ as a generalisation throughout this writing.]

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A handful of my Contemplations that touch on how crises are leveraged against us:
Rackets: Keeping the Curtains on Reality Drawn. Website Medium Substack
Energy and Its Interconnections With Our Financialised Economic System. Website Medium Substack
Fiat Currency Devaluation: A Ruling Elite ‘Solution’ to Growth Limits. Website Medium Substack
Rackets: Keeping the Curtains on Reality Drawn. Website Medium Substack
Ruling Elite Rackets Everywhere….. Website Medium Substack

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Societal Decline and Concomitant Stressors

In his 1988 monograph The Collapse of Complex Societies archaeologist Joseph Tainter argued that human societies at their core are problem-solving organisations and that they increase in complexity through ever-increasing investments in problem-solving. This approach, however, eventually reaches a point when marginal productivity and effectiveness of the ‘solutions’ being pursued can no longer rise–complexity can still accrue some benefits past this point, but at a declining marginal rate.

As the ‘solutions’ pursued begin to lose their efficacy and perceived issues go unresolved, societal stress begins to grow–this is primarily due to our tendency to use the easiest-to-achieve and least-expensive-to-implement ‘solutions’ first, leaving the more difficult and expensive approaches until later in our problem-solving approach–i.e., we pick the lowest hanging fruit to begin then move to the ones that require more ‘investments’, especially in terms of resources (particularly energy).

Add to this growing strain that many, if not all, of the ‘solutions’ we pursue tend to lead to larger and more convoluted ‘problems’ down the road due to expanding complexity, nonlinear feedback, and unforeseen complications/consequences. This increases societal stressors as time goes by and requires more and more problem-solving efforts and investments, sometimes to a point where the ‘costs’ outweigh the ‘benefits’. A positive feedback loop emerges that is difficult if not impossible to escape from (See: Problem Solving: Complexity, History, Sustainability. Website Medium Substack). [Note: I put ‘problem’ and ‘solutions’ in quotes as much of what we are dealing with are not ‘problems’ but predicaments that have no solutions, only outcomes—see Erik Michaels’ writing on this important clarification—particularly when we are dealing with the stresses related to ecological overshoot and all of its symptom predicaments.]

Tainter goes on to suggest that today’s rising “concern with collapse and self-sufficiency may itself be a significant social indicator, the expectable scanning behaviour of a social system under stress, in which there is an advantage to seeking lower-cost solutions” (p. 210).

This scanning behaviour Tainter is speaking of refers to the expansion of general awareness and associated assessments that a social system employs when it senses challenges or stressors. It reflects how a society measures its environment in order to find adaptive strategies (proactive and reactive ‘problem solving’) that support and sometimes enhance survival. The hope is that vulnerabilities can be identified and crises anticipated by monitoring change, gathering relevant information, and adopting strategies that can address the pending or occurring issues. But more often than not, I would argue, we are being reactive in our problem-solving behaviour as opposed to proactive; however, either approach tends to result in greater complexity and additional ‘problems’ to ‘solve’.

To sum up this scanning behaviour and what arises from it: when the social and physical environments that we exist within begin to exhibit significant stress, humans increasingly notice and begin to look for ways in which that stress can be relieved. This stress relief is usually via some form of ‘problem solving’ investment. There is a good argument to be made to suggest that this is a classic ‘fight-or-flight’ response to alleviate anxiety/avoid pain.

What are some of the more obvious stressors that seem to be rising to the surface of societal awareness? I’ve listed some in the following table and how they seem to manifest themselves.

These stressors seem to be exploding across nations and the globe, an indication of our global, industrial societies experiencing systemic strain and declining resilience. Such change significantly increases the potential for societal ‘collapse’; it doesn’t guarantee it, it simply sets up a society for a stress surge that cannot be addressed and pushes it past a tipping point. (See: Collapse = Prolonged Period of Diminishing Returns + Significant Stress Surge(s) Part 1, Website Medium Substack Part 2, Website Medium Substack Part 3, Website Medium Substack Part 4, Website Medium Substack)

Depending upon one’s perspective, the cause of these stressors varies widely. Most tend to be somewhat reductionist in their evaluation leading to the pointing of fingers at individual determinants, especially at the political and/or economic systems. And while these certainly play a not non-significant role, the vast majority of this thinking neglects the complexity of systems and especially the biogeophysical aspects that I would argue underpin the increasing stress our globalised, industrial societies are experiencing; especially biological processes (e.g., ecological overshoot), geological constraints (e.g., finite resource limitations), and physical laws (e.g., thermodynamic, especially entropy).

It is rare indeed that there is any consideration or discussion regarding the notion that many if not all of the predicaments we are facing are the result of humanity having bumped up against and are now experiencing the consequences of ecological overshoot as laid out by Meadows et al in their 1972 text, The Limits to Growth, and William Catton Jr. in his 1980 monograph, Overshoot:The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change.

For the most part, what one must not do is challenge the ideas of economic growth and its associated ‘progress’ for they are the dominant and preferred mindsets within the modern zeitgeist, and must be maintained regardless of the ‘costs’.

Human Psychological Responses To Stressors

Regardless of the causes of these stressors, the responses by our species to them vary rather widely with much depending upon sociocultural context, community dynamics, available resources, and personal circumstances. And while some may simply seek more information about what is occurring, others pursue more actionable pathways–such as adapting behavioural changes that can steer individuals and/or communities towards ‘sustainable’ practices and self-sufficiency, relocating/migrating from a ‘failing’ region/nation, or engaging on a sociopolitical level–it is the psychological reactions that I am focussing upon in this Contemplation.

The psychological repercussions of growing societal stressors are exceedingly complex and also quite varied. Some people handle stress much better than others, with much depending upon personal experiences and personality traits, but also sociocultural norms and expectations.

The tendency of some in the face of growing societal stress is to lay the blame at the feet of others and we see this in the rise of ‘othering’ alongside both domestic and geopolitical strife. Some actually take a diametrically-opposite path with attempts to form altruistic networks and organisations to support individuals and communities.

Still others don’t even acknowledge these stressors, wondering what all the fuss is about. James Howard Kunstler has argued that many, perhaps most, are simply too caught up in the ‘thrum of daily life’ and personal/family stress that takes precedence over concerns about societal-level stressors (I often think about the ‘privilege’ I have in being able to contemplate and then pontificate about in my writing these issues and topics in light of some of the tragedies and situations others in this world are experiencing on an almost daily basis–some not small number of people are struggling to avoid sectarian violence, survive the next bombing run, put food on the table, and/or pay for or find shelter).

Additionally, I wouldn’t be surprised if part of this ‘lack of interest’ is due to the large number of individuals in our ‘modern’ societies being medicated for anxiety/depression–a personal communication from one of our local pharmacists a couple of years ago caused me to pause when he declared that he guessed a good half of our town’s adult residents were on anti-anxiety/-depressant medication; likely exaggerated, but still...

And then, of course, there are all the distractions that the ruling elite help to maintain–the Roman ‘bread and circuses’; ‘modernity’s’ version being found mostly in the entertainment industry (think musical performances, video games, theme parks, film and television production, sports, etc.).

While fear and anxiety about external stressors can overwhelm some, perhaps the most common reactions are reflective of the grieving stages (much of the above few paragraphs on responses can be categorised into these). When societies experience stress, it is common to have to confront loss and significant change, and the stages of grieving are a reflexive response to this as they help to alleviate anxiety-provoking thoughts and fear.

The defence mechanism of denial is one of the initial ones employed when confronting stress. It is the refusal to accept the reality that one is experiencing. It is oftentimes a temporary coping strategy to help protect oneself from overwhelming emotions. If the issue doesn’t exist, neither does the emotional torment. Problem solved.

However, in the context of a failing society, this reaction can lead to more problematic outcomes since it delays actions that might help to reduce the negative consequences that accompany ecological overshoot and societal simplification. Denial often results in the belief that things are not nearly as bad as portrayed by some and that stability will reassert itself soon enough even in the face of evidence to the contrary.

And then there’s the bargaining stage.

At this point in our global, industrial society’s ‘collapse’ I am witnessing a significant rise in this particular phase of grieving–it could just be my confirmation bias (I’ve noted it and now I see it everywhere). It would seem that more and more people are moving past the denial stage–more-or-less acknowledging that there are growing signs of societal and ecological stress–and into that of attempting to negotiate themselves and/or society’s way out of the situation to avoid the associated anxiety and loss.

Oftentimes, the bargaining by way of seeking ‘solutions’ is aimed at sustaining current living arrangements with as little inconvenience as is possible. Many appeal to our politicians and political institutions (naively, in my opinion, believing the decision makers in these systems actually have the best interests of the masses at the top of their agendas). Others put their faith in the ‘free market’ and corporate ‘leaders’ (believing that ‘rational’ choices by consumers and human innovation will lead us to the promised land). And some turn to society’s ‘experts’ and academics, having placed ‘science’ on a pedestal that is ‘objective’, definitive in its conclusions, and capable of ‘solving’ all ‘problems’ given enough time and resources (not appreciating the impossibility of our species to have complete objectivity, the influence that paradigms and incentives have on steering a lot of research, and the leveraging of this approach by various profiteers–including our political class).

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A handful of my Contemplations that discusses these appeals to authority:
The Politics of Dancing: The politicians are now dj’s…. Website Medium Substack
She Blinded Me With Science, and More On The ‘Clean’ Energy Debate…. Website Medium Substack
Solace Will Not Be Found Within Our Sociopolitical Systems—Biogeophysical Limitations Cannot Be Overcome By Way Of Policy. Website Medium Substack
Our Political Systems Are Not Going To Help Our Predicament As They Want/Need Growth. Medium Substack
Sociopolitical Agency, Narrative Control, and Collapse. Medium Substack

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Being who we are–a story-telling ape with the ability to devise and construct various complex tools–we are tending to gravitate towards utopian tales of unending progress and ‘relevant’ technologies in our attempts to ‘solve’ and/or mitigate the array of societal and ecological stressors. Most of the technologies we are employing tend to be ‘quick fixes’, the lower-hanging fruit of ‘solutions’. On top of this many are spreading fantastical tales through their support of prototypes or conceptual/as-yet-to-be-hatched technologies that will ‘save’ humanity and the planet–all of them quite magical in their ability to be ‘clean and sustainable’.

Unfortunately, this problem-solving approach that humanity tends to use ignores both the complexity and deeper structural aspects of the issues we are facing. And more often than not, we have been drawn towards the idea that technological fixes in particular are sufficient to prevent, address, or reverse precarious situations. Because, after all, technology is always ‘progressing’ as it’s always getting better (‘new and improved’), and human ingenuity guarantees this forever and ever. Amen!

This stage of grieving that strives to confront loss and change also aims to maintain/regain a sense of agency in our lives and societies. In trying to retain a sense of power over our lives, quick-fix solutions are quite appealing. We often don’t care if they are getting to the root of the issue or not. Does it provide, even temporarily, immediate relief from the stress/anxiety being experienced? Yes? Then let’s do it and to hell with the fallout or we will deal with it, if any, down the road. And since we’re such an intelligent species, we will ‘solve’ such repercussions…eventually.

This is guaranteed because it’s always worked in the past–only it hasn’t.

In Part 2, I will explore this human ingenuity and technological prowess aspect further and its use to bargain our way out of societal and ecological collapse. And what prompted me to write this Contemplation.

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What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:

“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.

Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”

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You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.