Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCXXXIV
Collapse Is Baked Into Our Future.
Looking back at the past few years of my essays on societal collapse I’ve noted a number of consistent messages and wanted to reiterate them here as I believe we are firmly on the downslope of societal complexity and moving ever faster towards a state that could be interpreted as significant societal decline. [Note: I am going to use the term collapse throughout this essay but if you prefer, you could think of it as simplification or decline from a more complex state; that’s what ‘collapse’ is.]
Before diving into the messages that arise from some of my previous work on past collapses of complex societies, I think it’s important to note that our current experiment and how things will unfold may rhyme with the past but there are many dissimilarities given our starting point and circumstances. I believe collapse is inevitable given virtually every iteration of large, complex societies over the past 6000+ years has ended in collapse. But how this plays out is unknown and unknowable. While we are likely to mirror quite a few aspects of the past, how we respond to the biophysical limits we have bumped up against and the various historical patterns that have preceded us will be quite different. For example, it is likely our globalised, industrial societies will collapse in a much quicker fashion than the relatively long and drawn-out fashion of those in the past, but more on this below.
The Past
First, past collapses have tended to be a long, drawn-out process of societal simplification and not a sudden, apocalyptic-type event. Over generations, society experiences a roller-coaster-type journey of peaks and valleys; crises, followed by relative stability, sometimes even temporary recovery, and then decline again. The idea that collapse was the ‘end of the world’ for past societies is inaccurate; it has tended to be the ‘end of the status quo order’; and for those outside of the ruling elite, possibly quite liberating.
Second, there appear to be two fundamental and interlocking drivers of collapse: diminishing returns on complexity and ecological overshoot. As ‘problem-solving’ organisations, societies tend to address challenges by way of increasing complexity (i.e., more bureaucracy, control, specialisation). Positive returns on such investments are typical early on but over time the costs–especially in terms of energy and resources–rise exponentially leading to a decrease in the benefits. Such costs can be absorbed early on through a society’s surpluses, maintaining status quo complexity for a time; but this makes a society more vulnerable to future stressors. Overshooting the natural carrying capacity of an environment has occasionally been an issue for past societies, and their response was typically expansion into underexploited areas or the implementation of new technologies.
Third, when diminishing returns have weakened a society and its reserves are depleted, a stress surge can trigger cascading failures and eventual collapse.
Past collapses suggest that a series of interrelated consequences will manifest themselves over the years and decades as the collapse path is followed.
An economic unravelling ensues, with government revenues suffering, which impairs the state’s ability to invest in further complexity. The elite attempt to counter this situation through ‘money printing’ and credit expansion that result in currency debasement, price inflation, and living standard decline for the masses. Economic breakdown is accompanied by energy-averaging system disruptions (i.e., trade, supply chains) and shortages of goods.
Sociopolitical breakdown occurs through a loss of central authority, with associated support services to the population being greatly degraded or lost entirely and distant regions breaking away from the centre. As social unrest increases and the ruling caste face declining revenues, greater population control via authoritarianism grows. Increased legislation, narrative management, and dissent suppression serve to sustain elite access to wealth and power. With a loss of central control, smaller regions/states arise and compete with one another, resulting in a period of perpetual conflict, lawlessness, and civil strife.
Abandonment of settlements and mass migration by populations is common during such times. People ‘opt out’ of declining systems usually by leaving urban centres and failing regions, moving to more resource-rich areas. Services, infrastructure maintenance, and art in collapsing states cease, with existing buildings being ‘mined’ for their materials. As trade and redistribution systems fail, local communities see a rise in self-sufficiency.
The elite tend to respond in similar ways through the ages. They attempt to insulate themselves from the consequences for as long as possible, usually by placing any burdens upon the masses–this is primarily because their overriding motivation is to maintain their revenue streams and positions of power. The elite do this by way of increased taxes, currency debasement, and austerity. They also carefully manage societal stories to suppress dissent and maintain hope, keeping the masses in ignorance of the true nature of their predicament. In what can only be viewed as tragic irony, the elite also double and triple down on the strategy that has placed them in their predicament: the pursuit of increased complexity, particularly via technological innovations. Unfortunately, this approach exacerbates the underlying issues and makes the eventual collapse all the more precipitous.
And while adaptation to new circumstances has been a central experience of humanity since it arose, those experiencing societal collapse were required to adapt constantly to a rather drawn-out breakdown of societal functions–many of which they had come to depend upon. This was both physically and psychologically taxing. Nutritional challenges led to widespread disease and death alongside a sense of hopelessness and suicide.
While the future is unwritten, here’s what’s possible given what’s passed and our present circumstance…
The present context of humanity–globalisation, industrial dependence, and the compounding effect of global, ecological overshoot–suggests a future that may rhyme with the past but will be different in its speed, scale, and severity. Collapse may begin regionally but is likely to spread rather quickly on a global scale given the interconnections and dependencies that have been created.
The timeline is also not likely to be over centuries or several generations as in the past but compressed significantly, perhaps over just a few years or months. There are few in today’s societies that are capable of self-sufficiency. Most are reliant upon just-in-time supply chains, complex and fragile energy grids, and a single, finite master resource (petroleum). When a stress surge occurs–be it war, financial collapse, or a cascading climate event–failures will spread around the planet in weeks/months. As well, the valleys that typically accompany such changes will likely be steeper and the recoveries that follow shallower and shorter lived.
The “stress surge” is unlikely to be a single trigger but a series of cascading events. Mutually reinforcing and interconnected crises are likely to occur rather simultaneously. Perhaps a financial crash will occur alongside a geopolitical conflict leading to a disruption in energy supplies. As nations scramble to control remaining resources, food shortages may occur leading to civil unrest. There will not be a specific ‘before’ and ‘after’ event but a rapid unravelling across a variety of fronts.
In the past people migrated to underexploited regions that held the resources they required for living. Such regions no longer exist for the most part. Virtually all of the planet’s arable lands, for example, have been occupied and significantly depleted, putting all at risk. Migration from failing regions will be met with hostility from those present resulting in a ‘fortress’ mentality with increasingly militarised borders and growing resource wars. It will be impossible to opt out of failing systems as in the past and simply retreat to a ‘greener pasture’. We may witness a desperate and possibly quite violent struggle for survival and any arable lands. The collapse of nation states unable to secure their borders in light of massive refugee migrations is quite possible.
Perhaps the most central catastrophe will be the collapse of current food systems. Food shortages have been a recurrent theme of past collapses but with most having the skills and knowledge to grow, harvest, and store their own food, it was possible for many to survive and continue on. A breakdown of our globalised and industrial agricultural systems with its reliance upon hydrocarbon-based inputs–from pesticides and fertiliser to planting/harvesting/distribution machinery–will result not just in scarcity but an inability to feed most, especially in dense urban centres. Local self-sufficiency will tend to be a forced and desperate struggle amongst a population that has lost its ability to be very successful at it. Starvation on a scale unseen in modern history is the most likely outcome with knock-on consequences exacerbating the collapse.
Modernity is also likely to witness an increasing techno-authoritarianism and environmentally destructive near-term future. The ruling elite, in their attempts to insulate themselves, will significantly expand complexity and narrative management. More pervasive technology is likely to take the place of expanded bureaucracies. AI-driven surveillance. Digital identities tied to resource rationing. Automated control systems. These technologies will be marketed to the public as the most efficient means of managing scarcity and maintaining order. Rhetoric leveraging the notion of ‘green’ and ‘sustainable’ technologies will grow. Electric vehicles and ‘renewables’ will be pushed but not to benefit the masses; their use will be more focussed upon sustaining industrial activity, controlling resource flows, and providing ‘hope’ to everyone. Unfortunately, this is more likely to exacerbate biosphere degradation than anything else. From this will arise an expansion of ‘sacrifice zones’ where regions/nations that hold resources and/or waste are deemed ‘unviable’, resulting in a divide between fortified, high-tech enclaves for the elite and uninhabitable and conflict-ridden peripheral areas for the masses.
What have been termed “Dark Ages” typically follow societal collapse; a period of time where many of the characteristics that define ‘civilisation’ are mostly lost, but that take generations to occur. Literacy. Construction of monumental architecture. Art. Specialised knowledge.
In our case, the hyper-specialised knowledge to maintain our many interconnected complexities and technological infrastructure may be lost almost immediately. Our world will lose not just the massive complexity that exists but the institutional memory to maintain or rebuild it. This knowledge may be lost quite quickly–not through forgetting, but because the complex supply chains, institutional structures, and energy inputs that sustain it will fail simultaneously, leaving humanity without a means of preserving or transmitting it. There exists no local knowledge to help create from scratch computer chips, specialised medical equipment, and agricultural machinery when their supply chains fail. The collapse will be brutal given the height from which it will occur compared to the past.
Recovery from collapse has been a common theme of the past. Perhaps not right away to the complexity that existed prior to collapse, but certainly to a level where communities could survive. Human ecological overshoot on a global scale has so severely altered our planetary systems that the recovery that past societies have experienced may be out of reach for ours. Our species will be attempting to survive within environments exhibiting permanently diminished carrying capacity; recovery, even survival, may not be possible.
Conclusion
I see no grand ‘solution’ to this situation. It is an insoluble predicament. And although even local action is constrained by the systems we remain embedded in, it remains the one domain where some choice still exists. In such circumstances, the best one might do given our lack of agency in the outcome is to focus on one’s local circumstances.
“Collapse now to avoid the rush” through a proactive simplification of one’s life, build community resilience, learn practical skills, and reduce dependence upon the fragile, complex systems that are destined to fail. The inevitable collapse of our globalised and industrialised complex societies cannot be halted. The ruling elite are sure to continue their machinations until they too can no longer insulate themselves from the planet’s biophysical limits. The best one might do is attempt to mitigate the worst impacts for one’s family, local community, and the planet’s biosphere.
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You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
More great work from Steve as we chronicle the unravelling together.
Central to this collapse is complexity, it's always been our 'weak link'.
One huge difference between this collapse and the 150+ previous civilizational collapses is that in previous civilizations, most of the people had practical skills, it was the only way to survive, nowadays people are generally 'specialists', another weakness.
When the complexity vanishes, we lose the Aerosol Masking effect, triggering a massive spike in temperature and we then have something like 500 unattended nuclear plants/ships percolating away, every oil field, refinery and chemical plant will find their own 'equilibrium.'
The temperature spike from the loss of the AME will devastate agriculture and we'll see multiple breadbasket collapses.
Have a peaceful unravelling team, time is short.
Added to the comments section of my blog on Joe Tainters work.
https://kevinhester.live/2017/08/08/the-myth-of-human-progress-and-the-collapse-of-complex-societies-chris-hedges/
It's always nice (?) to see another voice trying to present similar ideas, but in a slightly different style or format. I have broken your message down into smaller chunks. I am particularly drawn to two concepts you explain; the dangers of complexity, and the building of local forms of resilience and adaptation. Thanks!