Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCX
Keep Calm and Carry On… Human Ingenuity and Technology Will Save Us! Part 3
In Parts 1 (Website Medium Substack) and 2 (Website Medium Substack) of this multipart Contemplation I present the case that humanity’s psychological defense mechanisms (especially denial, bargaining, and techno-optimism) are preventing most from becoming aware of and/or better understanding the predicaments of societal collapse and ecological overshoot. This not only delays any possible mitigations that might ‘soften’ the consequences of collapse and overshoot, but because we are seeking solace in illusory and quick-fix ‘solutions’ we are actually making our situation worse. Most of these ‘fixes’ are via technical innovations, a problem-solving strategy our species has used since it arose on our planet in order to help it in its adaptation to an ever-changing and unpredictable environment.
If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview.
The Root Cause Of Our Predicaments
I have little doubt that the fundamental cause of our various predicaments has been our seemingly relentless growth/expansion (population and economic) upon a planet with finite resources with the help of innovative tools/technologies. There are plenty of other contributing factors (with a number of recent ones supercharging our tendencies), but this is the crux of our impossibly-intractable dilemmas: ever-expanding growth on a finite planet by way of technological innovation, especially our resource-dependent ones.
There have arisen a number of consequences to this approach to living by our species, particularly over the past couple of centuries when we began to leverage hydrocarbons to aid us in our innovations. One result is a growing tension between a lot of people’s desires/expectations for an ever-improving and prosperous future, and the ecological limits of a finite planet.
We have (although some vehemently deny this) very real resource limits on minerals and materials in high demand for almost all modern technologies, exceeding the planet’s capacity to regenerate ‘renewable’ ones and absorb the waste our existence and technology production creates. This ‘overshoot’ is driving environmental degradation and the destruction of ecological systems upon which all life depends.
The societal implications from all this are also monumental. From growing social inequality to burgeoning political instability, human societies are experiencing a number of stressors. And we’re making the situation worse by pushing techno-fixes.
However, as Tainter points out in his text on the collapse of complex societies (see this), even this approach of innovation to ‘solve’ issues encounters diminishing returns–to say little about the tendency of human ‘solutions’ to exacerbate the problems they are attempting to address; sometimes almost immediately, but mostly after a relatively prolonged period of time creating a situation where the new problems are not associated with the implemented solutions (non-linear feedback loops are exceedingly complex and difficult, if not impossible, to predict and unravel accurately and lag times cloud any connection between cause and effect). [See: Problem Solving: Complexity, History, Sustainability. Website Medium Substack]
There’s overwhelming evidence to suggest that this particular strategy is maladaptive in that it serves to intensify our fundamental predicament of ecological overshoot. These technologies, after all, require the continuation and, actually, the significant expansion of the extractive and industrial processes that are greatly adding to our various predicaments–be it compensatory sink overloading, resource depletion, toxin/pollutant dispersal, biodiversity loss, etc..
All one has to do is consider the projected energy and resource demands of the growing artificial intelligence sector and associated data centres to see where this is likely headed. We will not only continue to pursue/double-down the pursuit of technologies that ‘promise’ to ‘improve’ our world, but also chase them to try and maintain status quo systems (e.g., socioeconomic, sociopolitical, etc.) in the face of diminishing returns on our investments. Damn the consequences.
I have come to appreciate this tendency as part and parcel of the overwhelming need to reduce the anxiety-provoking thoughts that arise from the cognitive dissonance that occurs when one experiences or becomes aware of the increasing and obvious symptoms of ‘collapse’ and overshoot but believes that either all is well or that our various governing systems along with science and technology can solve anything thrown in our path–as well as being pushed by the planet’s profiteers who own the industries required for this approach.
Humanity has experienced a long run of ‘success’ with this problem-solving approach of technical innovation. For virtually its entire existence our species has been adapting to our planet and its various environments through such innovations as the harnessing of fire, flint knapping, food storage, trade, medicine, animal domestication, irrigation, agriculture, metal working, etc..
The argument that this problem-solving technique has led us into a possible dead-end path is difficult if not impossible for most to consider. We have come to view this approach as not just reflective of our immense ingenuity, but as guarantors of a future of endless possibilities and prosperity. To infinity and beyond…
Enter one of our recent technical developments: social media. A technological innovation that has allowed the sharing of ideas and thoughts on a scale unknown to previous generations. Millions of people can discuss and share in real time on a level beyond the imagining of our species only a couple of decades ago. I still vividly remember the fledgling attempts my late dad and I had back in the mid-1980s communicating via our computers. What has developed since then is astounding. But there is a dark side to this as well that most never even think about.
In particular has been the ability of some to leverage this technology for rather nefarious purposes. At the top of my list for such things is the use of this technology for propaganda and surveillance purposes–especially narrative management/control by the ruling ‘class (corporations and governments alike)–and to create/expand revenue streams in a variety of ways. Combined with increasing knowledge regarding human psychology, computers and their ability to connect millions/billions of humans have opened the door to some rather ‘interesting’ manipulations.
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Social Media and Human Psychology
Social media platforms leverage various psychological factors to attract engagement/‘clicks’, and create habitual ‘checking-in’ behaviour.
Why do they do this?
The more users, clicks, and revisits, the more money that can be generated through a number of avenues. The sale of advertising space and monetisation of data, what has come to be termed dataveillance, are the largest sources of revenue.
Most of these platforms offer an ad revenue sharing programme where pages/sites with a large number of followers can earn from the placement of advertisements directly. Pages can also promote products with trackable links and sponsored posts that can generate significant income.
Additional revenue-generation is created via indirect methods such as building large audiences to give the air of ‘authority/expertise’. This can lead to more lucrative sponsorship deals since subscriber lists can be used for direct marketing of products and services.
These platforms benefit greatly from this system by earning a percentage on almost all revenue generated by pages/sites that use their services. The greater the popularity of the page, the more that the platform can earn from the advertisers it is selling space to. They also collect massive amounts of data on any users and can target their interests for marketing. Surveillance capitalism at its best.
To ‘hook’ users, platforms (e.g., Facebook, YouTube, TikTok) have implemented: ‘reaction’ buttons and ‘notification’ systems to elicit dopamine-seeking feedback loops; engagement metrics that help reinforce social motivation and take advantage of herd mentality and the phenomena of social proof; the highlighting of trending topics to engage the fear of missing out reaction; headlines/content that trigger emotional hooks; manipulative algorithms that microtarget interests and create echo chambers; interactive content such as comment boxes, friend tagging, and polls; and ‘expert’ endorsements to leverage our tendency to defer to authority.
Enter the Magic of Science and Technology
Profiteers seeking to use this technology to generate revenue are plentiful and quite a number use the above tactics as well as leveraging the marketing hype of the latest, greatest science and technology, and the need to reduce cognitive dissonance in the face of growing societal and environmental stressors.
For a number of these pages revenue is generated directly via advertising revenue, affiliate marketing with trackable links, sponsored posts, and ‘paid’ newsletters. It is further achieved via merchandise, e-books/courses, technology services, and event sponsorship.
The social media platforms aid in the proliferation of these pages by boosting them if they offer engaging or awe-inspiring content. And, of course, their monetisation tools (especially data harvesting) help to generate revenue for itself.
These pages and their posts are mostly sensationalist in nature. They tend to be quite misleading in their exaggeration of ‘breakthroughs’–I would argue to the point of being fraudulent in the claims and certainly place ‘profit’’ before ‘accuracy’. The spread of mis-/dis-/mal-information they contribute to is staggering–to say little about their complicity in collecting user data that can be sold to third parties and/or used to target future advertising and similar sites/pages to that which have been visited.
By overhyping technological ‘breakthroughs’, users are lead to believe that the changes/solutions highlighted can ‘solve’ our pressing issues in the near term, ignoring the very real limits and hurdles that the ‘revolutionary’ technology featured in a post faces (e.g., scalability, dependence upon finite resources, continuation of ecological destruction, etc.).
The tendency to overestimate positive outcomes and underestimate negative ones (i.e., optimism bias) plays a big role in this as well by attracting users. Because humans tend to prefer hopeful narratives to those that are not, they ignore the downside of chasing or implementing these technologies and/or the misinformation being provided, choosing instead to believe the hype. The fact that the overwhelming majority of such ‘breakthroughs’ become investment sinks and never become scalable, commercial, or make it out of the ‘research labs’ is lost on ‘believers’.
Some of these clickbait posts are rather obvious (although a lot are far less so and more ‘cunning’ in their approach by sharing kernels of actual tech research but then significantly overhyping its potential). If there is no link to the actual research, or no timeline, no mention of hurdles to be overcome, and/or no evaluation by independent ‘experts’, then it is likely that the post is simply a spewing of a company’s press release or very selective ‘reporting’ of early-stage research. And keep in mind that such press releases and selective ‘reporting’ are primarily carried out in the hopes of attracting investors, and this is as true for academic research that depends upon funding from outside the university/college to continue as it is for corporate research.
I began seeing such posts in my Facebook feed some time ago. I don’t recall exactly when but it’s likely because someone in one of the groups I am a member of was posting them and I made the mistake of clicking on a few to challenge the obvious hype (most are energy/resource blind). I soon began seeing these popping up in my feed constantly. They still appear occasionally but not to the degree that they used to because I stopped clicking on them and instead closed the post. I may take a screenshot, but then close the page/post hoping to ‘reset’ the Facebook algorithm that keeps feeding them to me, and have actually reported a few for ‘false information’–not that I believe that will make any difference in FB’s promotion of them.
What I’m witnessing now, however, is many others (some that I believe should know that the claims are false/misleading/complete bullshit) reposting the claims, regurgitating the false information, and suggesting/implying that ‘salvation’ is right around the corner.
Here are a handful of examples from my FB feed posted by others in just the past month or so:
You can very easily see several of the psychological mechanisms discussed above in these posts highlighting ‘breakthroughs’ that will supposedly address our various predicaments: “Trillions of tons of Underground Hydrogen was just found and it’s enough to power Earth for 1,000 years.” Social proof and authority are provided: “...Columbia University has developed…” Emotional triggers are used: “In a quiet corner of Switzerland, engineers just did something wild…”
These products/innovations are marketed by the companies pursuing them, highlighting only the supposed benefits, and then further hyped by individuals/groups leveraging Facebook’s revenue-generating abilities. The overwhelming majority of them are purely theoretical in nature or lab-based prototypes that have yet to be or, more than likely never will be, available commercially. They are posted to attract clicks to generate revenue.
These sites are preying upon people’s scanning behaviour that is increasingly aware of the growing stress in our societies and environments, and seeking adaptive strategies that can be employed to reduce their cognitive dissonance. Their optimism bias towards that often pursued strategy of technological innovation overrides the complexity of the issue(s) they wish to address.
Scratching even lightly at the surface narrative exposes the complexities and negative aspects. But most people do not perform any due diligence regarding their claims. They ‘trust’ the source and thus believe the ‘claim’. They make no effort to pull back the curtain and expose the machinations going on behind it. The complexity of issues is ignored.
When I witness individuals that seem quite aware of the complexity and unsustainability of our current systems repost these memes leading others to buy into the overhyped mis/dis/malinformation, I am perplexed. Perhaps it's because the vast majority of our species are nothing if not very determined in their attempts to reduce anxiety and ignore/deny the biogeophysical limitations and negative repercussions of our wishful thinking and attempts to sustain the unsustainable–even when they are aware of the impossibility of the claims being made. Despite coming to accept our plight, it appears that if you have the smallest sliver of ‘hope’ hiding somewhere in your mind these posts can activate it and the bargaining begins.
Heresy is the tale that we cannot, nor should we, be pursuing these technological ‘wonders’ for that way lies further ecological destruction and the less-than-cheery consequences of ecological overshoot, to say little about that recurrent phenomenon of societal collapse that they contribute to,
But a reminder to all who are firmly entrenched upon or want to jump on the human-ingenuity-and-technology-will-save-us bandwagon: they all require huge finite resource inputs (particularly hydrocarbons) and result in massive ecological destruction. By pursuing them we are making a horrific situation even worse.
At this point in our journey, we can’t afford to continue along this path without making our planet less habitable for all. Without confronting the perpetual-growth machine, we continue to destroy both the present and the future. Unfortunately, humanity’s proclivity to problem solve via technology and the profits this now generates for those who ‘run’ our societies virtually guarantees that is the path we will follow, exacerbating our overshoot with each step and bringing collapse of our complex societies and ecological systems ever nearer in time to the present.
It’s our technological-based problem-solving behaviour that is the root of our predicament. And rather than accept and acknowledge this we do the opposite. We celebrate and pursue it at every opportunity. Most cannot accept that we are perhaps no better than yeast expanding in a finite petri dish leaving behind ever-increasing amounts of toxic waste; and just like the yeast we are growing exponentially–a situation that will not end well…
Relatively recent and relevant articles…
George Tsakraklides:
Technophilia; The Mental Illness Behind Civilisational Collapse
“Technophilia preys upon a key characteristic of the human brain: we are hyperactive, hyper-thinking beings who look down upon the cessation of any of our activities, while being too proud to simply “undo” our errors as this would be a shameful admission of defeat. Instead, if we invent a new technology that promises to “repair” things, we are saviours and geniuses. The stigma which humans assign to deconstructive and recessive solutions is largely responsible for the worsening situation this civilisation has trapped itself in.”
Erik Michaels:
Technology Addiction and Lessons
“Why don't we learn lessons and then keep those lessons at the forefront in the mind of society? Primarily due to denial of reality and optimism bias. For instance, there is this Johnny Harris video that explains the world's longest border fence. Take a look at all the unintended consequences of our meddling with nature in an effort to engineer all the different things we would like to accomplish. What does this signify exactly? If you answered that solutions cause problems, you'd be right. However, it is also precisely how we arrived at this point in time. It is hardwired into our existence and part of our genetic and biological imperatives to be innovators.”
The Last Farm:
On Abundance
“Big picture, our reality is very straightforward: we have crossed 7 of 9 planetary boundaries. Those boundaries do not care one iota about our intentions or our preferred timeline or our political considerations. They do not care about our perceived "needs." They don't even care about the fate of our species. They are incapable of knowing or caring about anything because they are nothing more than real world math problems, and no amount of rhetorical manipulation will buy us any more time or leeway from them.”
The Honest Sorcerer
Societal Collapse Is Not a Bug
“What we got on our hands here and now is the outcome of a predicament we entered ten thousand years ago. After repeated iterations of the many civilizations ravaged the entire planet, having reduced wildlife populations and the size of natural ecosystems to a mere fraction of their original size, there is no return to the caves, spears and bows either. At least not this century or the next. This civilization has no other option than to go through a long, protracted but nonetheless radical simplification. Even though we will eventually have to leave all modern technology behind, this won’t happen from one day to the next, nor voluntarily for that matter.”
Art Berman
Reality Blind
“We are trapped in a reductionist mindset, always searching for a single cause, a single villain, and a single solution. This way of thinking, rooted in left-hemisphere dominance, is not ancient but relatively recent. It took hold with the rise of writing, mathematics, the wheel, and the horse — technologies that convinced us we could conquer complexity through control. We came to believe that cleverness could substitute for wisdom, and reductionism for holistic understanding. That mistake brought us to our current predicament. Still, we search for the silver bullet, the technology, the market mechanism to save us.”
Max Wilbert
Decolonizing the Degrowth Movement’s Imaginary Technology
“In a recent debate on whether globalizing consumer technology is the direction our movements should be taking, Aashis asserted that “given the scale of the problems we face, we need... to take a critical look at the chains of modernity that prevent us from taking meaningful action. Modern technologies have played a key role in our ecological predicament.... [and] colonial injustices including ecocides and genocides as well.””
William E. Rees
Twenty-Four Reasons Why We Are Hooped
“Consistent with the above, MTI societies have, for the past several decades, purposefully constructed a mythic cult of unlimited economic growth facilitated by continuous techno-progress. This culture-wide narrative is an exemplar of human hubris and eco-ignorance. The growthist mantra is inescapable, being reflected in government policies, our schools and universities, the daily news, business- and stock-market reports (where are the daily state-of-the-ecosphere summaries?) and even dinner conversation.”
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
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You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
Great trilogy of articles you've put together. Seems like you've got a book's worth now eh? :)