Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCVII
‘Collapse’: It May Not Be What You Think It Is.
This Contemplation is the result of my beginning to put together a different one that’s focussing upon an academic article I’ve been reading (Collapse, Environment, and Society) but that got me thinking about the academic ‘debate’ regarding what ‘societal collapse’ is, how it may–or may not–unfold for our current experiment in large, complex societies, and how things are perceived in the moment by those experiencing societal change.
The ‘debate’ (centred more-or-less on the question: Do societies actually ‘collapse’ or are they ‘merely’ shifting/transforming/adapting to changing conditions?) is rather ‘academic’ in that in the grand scheme of things it’s intellectually interesting but doesn’t have much to do with the on-the-ground, real-life experiences and concerns of most humans in a society–especially if they are experiencing some of the more ‘problematic’ consequences of collapse/transformation.
First, let’s explore some different meanings of ‘societal collapse’. [NOTE: while I’ve indicated an academic or two for each of the interpretive lenses that ‘collapse’ is viewed through, some of these researchers have perspectives that could be said to be combinations of views–for example, Dr. Joseph Tainter appears to see things in terms of the first two frameworks below: a complete loss of central authority and a dramatic loss of sociopolitical complexity, the two ways of viewing things overlapping somewhat.]
For some (e.g., Eric Cline), societies experience a complete loss of a central authority and its institutions (e.g., government, economy, legal system). As a result of this loss (or, perhaps, contributing to it as feedback mechanisms tend to do) urban centres are abandoned, populations disperse and/or decline dramatically, and there is a loss of important sociocultural elements (e.g., literacy, monumental architecture, and craft specialisation). The collapse of the Classic Maya, Western Roman Empire, and the Eastern Mediterranean Bronze Age are all pertinent examples of this loss.
For others (e.g., Joseph Tainter, Guy Middleton), it’s a dramatic loss of sociopolitical complexity. This results typically in the fragmentation of a large, centralised state into smaller, simpler, and less-centralised political units. While the standard of living for most people in the state suffers (but especially the elite), society itself persists but in a less complex form. Examples of this may be seen in the ‘collapse’ of Old Kingdom Egypt or the Hittite Empire.
Still others (e.g., David Webster, Norman Yoffee) view societal collapse as a loss of societal identity or a failure of the key functions of society. In other words, the characteristics that may define a society or the essential services it provides may be lost. For social identity it could be via conquest and the subsequent cultural assimilation that tends to occur. Alternatively, some of the important functions a society provides could be lost for a variety of reasons, such as security, rule of law, infrastructure maintenance, and/or basic sustenance. These could result from a society experiencing civil war or a devastating environmental disaster.
Some (e.g., Karl Butzer, Peter Turchin) view collapse as an irreversible transformation. While a new society may arise, it is qualitatively distinct from what existed before: the ‘old order’ has ‘collapsed’. The French or Russian Revolutions are considered examples of this, as is the Black Death’s impact upon medieval European feudalism.
There is also the view (e.g., Jared Diamond, Kyle Harper) that failure across a variety of systems (e.g., environmental, political, economic) can result in significant population decline and ‘collapse’. The Anasazi abandonment and decline of the Rapa Nui on Easter Island are examples of this perspective.
The various ‘meanings’ demonstrate that there is much subjectivity in how ‘collapse’ is viewed. From an ‘elite’ perspective, the loss of central authority might be ‘cataclysmic’ (since the revenues they depend upon are put at risk) but for the masses a decline in the authority of a centralised ‘government’ and its ever-increasing costs may actually be liberating. Scale is quite important as well since ‘collapse’ tends to impact different regions at different times (e.g., Maya lowlands vs. the highlands).
In addition, what we might consider a ‘society’ doesn’t necessarily ‘disappear’ with the members of it adapting and/or migrating to form a social structure that simply differs from what preceded it–in other words, what some may consider societal ‘collapse’ is viewed as societal ‘resilience’ and ‘adaptation’. Even the idea of a ‘Dark Age’ can be misleading given that while some aspects of a society’s elite members may be lost/decline (e.g., literacy, artistic endeavours), others remain with the masses (e.g., religion, ‘informal’ economy).
These interpretations of the processes that bring about ‘collapse’ are reflective of one’s view on change, its: speed (i.e., sudden vs. gradual), scale (i.e., regional vs. widespread), permanence (i.e., recovery vs irreversibility), cause (i.e., a complex combination of factors vs. individual ones such as war or plague), and outcome (i.e., simplification, population decline, conquest, etc.).
Which meaning one accepts as being most pertinent seems to be determined by which societal aspect(s) are focussed upon and from whose perspective one is viewing it from (i.e., ‘elite’ vs. ‘commoner’).
Overall, pre/history suggests that societal collapse/adaptation appears to be the result of a combination of mechanisms that lead to a breakdown of established social systems over a relatively long period of time and generate a range of possible outcomes. Whether this is ‘collapse’ or ‘adaptation’ depends upon one’s point of view.
A handful of my Contemplations on the topic of societal ‘collapse’:
A ‘Great Simplification’ Is On Our Doorstep. Website Medium Substack
Imperial Longevity, ‘Collapse’ Causes, and Resource Finiteness. Website Medium Substack
Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse? Website Medium Substack
Societal Collapse, Abrupt Climate Events, and the Role of Resilience. Website Medium Substack
Beyond Collapse: Climate Change and Causality During the Middle Holocene Climatic Transition. Website Medium Substack
Collapse = Prolonged Period of Diminishing Returns + Significant Stress Surge(s):
Part 1, Website Medium Substack; Part 2, Website Medium Substack;
Part 3, Website Medium Substack; Part 4, Website Medium Substack.
Second, let’s look at what this might be like for people experiencing this slow unravelling of society that seems to compound over a period of years and possibly generations.
There are several consequences of societal ‘decline’ that have been noticed in the pre/historical evidence.
First, there are what may be considered daily impacts on a society’s economy and thus the standard of living experienced–especially for the masses as the elite have the wealth and power, for the most part, to insulate themselves (for a time) from this increasing impoverishment. Currency devaluation is quite common and can be seen via relatively small incremental steps that build over time to erode significantly the purchasing power of the currency but can also occur dramatically via hyperinflation where the value of the currency drops daily/hourly. For a variety of reasons, the economy can also experience supply chain disruptions and a contraction of employment.
Second, societies begin to experience a decline in the construction and maintenance of important infrastructure as well as monumental architecture. In particular, transportation routes and communication systems begin to break down (feeding into supply chain disruptions and lack of regional/state coordination). This can result in the isolation of communities and if not locally self-sufficient, a more significant and negative immediate outcome for them.
Third, a dissolution in societal ‘norms’ can occur. Where trust in the central government fades, tribalism tends to grow along with ‘othering’. Rule of law can begin to fade with increased crime and vigilantism, sometimes leading to community militias. Corruption also tends to become more common as those with any power or wealth leverage this to gain even more.
Fourth, a decline in health and nutrition is experienced due to the breakdown of transportation routes and supply chains that lead to shortages of important foodstuffs and/or medicines. Associated with this can be a ‘collapse’ of proper sanitation standards that exacerbate the spread of disease. Such a situation is especially concerning for communities not locally self-sufficient in potable water, a variety of wholesome foods, and medicinal plants.
Fifth, there are the negative consequences on the psychological ‘wellness’ of those experiencing all of these aspects of ‘collapse’. Constant adaptation to ever-changing circumstances can be exhausting, physically and psychologically. While the youth tend to normalise the new ‘chaos’, older generations recall ‘stability’ and the resulting cognitive dissonance can lead to constant stress. Suicide rates have been seen to increase dramatically in modern instances of state ‘collapse’ due to a surge in feelings of hopelessness.
Sixth, a significant simplification of cultural institutions and knowledge occurs. Non-essential aspects such as art and luxury goods decline. Literacy rates fall and cultural knowledge fades. While written records may cease to be created, oral traditions increase to pass on learning, wisdom, and history.
Seventh, flight from failing communities/regions surges. As services decline in sub/urban centres, families flee to ‘greener pastures’. The same is true for regions suffering from climate/weather impacts such as droughts or flooding. This response can lead to crises at borders and/or where populations are already established.
Finally, resilient adaptation can and has occurred (thus, the ‘debate’ regarding what ultimately befalls a society–’collapse’ or ‘transition’). Some regions/communities of a society can actually thrive while others are suffering through the decline/collapse (e.g., wealth from ‘collapsing’ regions have been seen to flow into adjacent ones). Crises can spur innovative adaptations allowing residents to adapt to monumental changes. State support can be replaced by community-level networks.
These consequences tend not to reveal themselves in an overnight and/or cataclysmic fashion but rather in a long, rather drawn-out manner where a breakdown in functioning grinds on and accumulates over time. The ability to ‘fix’ things basically cannot keep up with their failure. For the most part, pre/history tends to show that it is the elite class and urban centres that experience the largest consequences of decline with rural and indigenous communities persisting (and perhaps even benefitting from reduced oppression).
It would seem that the ‘end of the world’ narrative may be more reflective of an ‘end of the status quo order’ than a total collapse of the widespread society in question. In the past, a fall of the prevalent order has occurred with regularity but has also been accompanied by adaptive resilience outside of the ‘elite’ caste.
This is not to suggest that there won’t be significant ‘shocks’ to our current living arrangements. There very likely will be. These could be economic in nature given the Ponzi-like structure of our current monetary and financial systems. And/or, they could be geopolitical in nature due to the ever-fragile relationships between nation states. They could even be the result of domestic unrest or an ecological/environmental disaster. There are a host of possibilities when diminishing returns on investments are in play and ecological overshoot and its symptom predicaments add additional stress to increasingly fragile systems.
While pre/history tends to support the relatively ‘gradual decline’ perspective when it comes to societal ‘collapse’, it may not be relevant for today’s global, industrial societies where the dependence upon centralised authority and complex, long-distance supply chains for virtually everything has for most, if not all, grown exponentially. The skills and knowledge to be self-sufficient have been mostly lost across the planet but certainly for all that depend upon the complex and fragile logistical systems for their survival needs (i.e., potable water, food, and shelter).
And rather than acknowledge and accept this dilemma (and pursue local self-sufficiency) most continue to search for and place their faith in political and/or technology-based ‘solutions’ that not only exacerbate this predicament but also accentuate economic growth, fuel geopolitical tensions over resources, and create ever-enlarging sacrificial zones/regions where the material needs for these technologies are satisfied–to say little about the toxins/pollutants from these industrial activities that spread across the planet via our atmosphere and waterways. These ‘solutions’ also feed into our ecological overshoot predicament by adding further complexity and roadblocks to possible adaptation and/or mitigation. A gargantuan ‘progress trap’ if ever there was one.
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.