Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCXXX

Revisited: Collapse = Prolonged Period of Diminishing Returns + Significant Stress Surge(s)

Over the past several months I have seen far more posts on my various media and social feeds focussed on the idea of societal ‘collapse/simplification/decline’. The reasons for this probably vary by author, but I would suspect that in part it reflects what archaeologist Joseph Tainter describes in his text The Collapse of Complex Societies as ‘scanning’ behaviour due to increased societal stress. Tainter describes this tendency as an adaptive response to the growing awareness of societal ‘problems’ whereby people begin searching for alternative ‘solutions’ to failing status quo arrangements. Motivation for such searching relies greatly upon the recognition that societies are temporary arrangements which tend to wax and wane over time. And for an increasing number of people, our global industrial societies appear to have reached their zenith and simplification awaits us just ahead; thus begins the search for ‘adaptations’.

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Tulum, Mexico. Photo by author.

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As such, I thought that this might be an opportune time to revisit a series of posts I did back in late 2024 related to the topic of societal ‘collapse’ as I work on another We’re Saved! Contemplation–this time analysing the environmental philosophy known as Ecomodernism, a very ‘pro-growth’ (via a massive buildout of technologies) response to increasing societal stressors.

In Part 1 of this series on societal collapse I outline what ‘collapse’ is and how it manifests itself in complex societies (Website; Medium; Substack). Part 2 explores the topic of diminishing returns on investments and how stress surges can overwhelm human sociopolitical systems that are experiencing diminishing returns and thereby open the door to broader societal collapse; I then begin to explore what follows collapse (Website; Medium; Substack). Part 3 expands on what past societies tell us about the collapse process and how they responded as society simplified–particularly the ruling elite; and suggests that these past experiences provide us with suggestions as to what our societies might expect in our uncertain future (Website; Medium; Substack). Finally, Part 4 reviews the patterns that exist throughout past collapses and how these might impact our present societies and their simplification (Website; Medium; Substack).

The evidence laid out in these four posts led me to conclude that:
“Perhaps one of the more significant impediments for our species in being able to accept that societal collapse is inevitable is that in our human proclivity to deny/avoid/ignore anxiety-provoking thoughts, the vast majority of us disregard the overwhelming evidence…so we support, even encourage, the elite response to keep pushing on the string of increased complexity and technology. Because, you know, human ingenuity. But all we are accomplishing by doing this is helping to make a tough situation even worse.

We mostly ignore, at our peril, the alternative (and one that will appear whether we wish it or not): simplification.”

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Relevant articles/presentations:

Ronald Wright - Seeing the Future in the Ruins of the Past

A New Kind of Relevance for Archaeology

The archaeology of climate change: The case for cultural diversity | PNAS

What Archaeology of the Remote Past Can Tell Us About Our Future Under Climate Change

Rising Scholars - Looking to the Past to Predict the Future: The Power of Statistical Learning

Predicting the Future Through Historical Lenses

Looking Ahead: How Historical Analysis Can Help Us Predict The Future - Centre of Excellence

(PDF) Human Prehistory. Exploring the Past to Understand the Future

Human Prehistory—Why New Discoveries About Human Origins Open Up Revolutionary Possibilities

Connecting the prehistoric past to the global future | NSF - U.S. National Science Foundation

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What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:

“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better. Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”

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You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.