Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCIV–Canada’s Housing ‘Crisis’ Revisited: Looking Into Why Housing Is Not Affordable For Most
(and it’s not primarily, if at all, for the reasons that the government and profiteers are banging the table about–inadequate supply and restrictive policies)
If you’re new to my writing, check out this synopsis.
As I continue to read and summarise very slowly and methodically another academic article (Collapse, Environment, and Society) and get side-tracked by our food gardens, I wanted to revisit a topic (Canada’s housing ‘crisis’) I discussed almost two years ago (see: Website; Medium; Substack). While the issue may appear to deviate from my usual focus upon societal ‘collapse’, ecological overshoot, and energy, it touches upon a few of the related concerns I have and observations I’ve made.
In particular the: narrative control/management/propaganda we are exposed to constantly and repeatedly by the world’s ruling caste and various profiteers; increasing evidence that our political systems are in service to this ruling elite and not the masses as marketed; and, ever-present leveraging of ‘crises’ by the ruling class and various snake oil salesmen to improve/extend the wealth-generation/-extraction systems that provide their revenue streams/profits and, subsequently, influence, power, and control. To put it simply: the housing ‘crisis’ I am going to delve into is just another racket that our ruling caste has leveraged to their advantage.
In addition, connecting it back to the collapse/overshoot/energy nexus I typically write about, the: absolute disregard for the ecological-systems destruction wrought by policies and actions despite the occasional political propaganda that such repercussions are usually, if not always, considered; increasing inequality arising as the elite ensure their share of a finite (and shrinking) economic pie is maintained/expanded in the face of limits to growth increasingly impacting human economic systems and wealth distribution; and, finally, feeding of the monster that is expediting our journey over the energy cliff and leading our complex societies to collapse and overshoot–pursuit of the infinite growth chalice.
All of these aspects are, to me, signals that our complex societies have not only encountered diminishing returns on their investments in our various increasingly complex societal systems, but that we are already experiencing the ‘collapse’ of them (keep in mind that ‘collapse’ is a relatively long and drawn-out process that will be unevenly experienced) and the attempts by our world’s ruling caste to not only kick-the-can-down-the-road for as long as they can so their gravy train keeps on rolling on for at least another quarter or two (the Ponzi must continue to expand or it implodes), but to siphon wealth from the majority of people who do not have the connections/influence/power over the decision-/policy-makers that ‘lead’ our various societal institutions, especially the governing, legislative, narrative-management, and financial/economic systems.
Some of my Contemplations that touch on the above subjects:
Imperial Longevity, ‘Collapse’ Causes, and Resource Finiteness (Website, Medium, Substack)
US Peak Shale Oil & Gas: When the Walls Come Tumblin’ Down (Website, Medium, Substack)
Problem Solving: Complexity, History, Sustainability. (Website, Medium, Substack)
Collapse = Prolonged Period of Diminishing Returns + Significant Stress Surge(s), Part 1 (Website, Medium, Substack) Part 2 (Website, Medium, Substack) Part 3 (Website, Medium, Substack) Part 4 (Website, Medium, Substack)
Rackets: Keeping the Curtains on Reality Drawn (Website, Medium, Substack)
Ruling Elite Rackets Everywhere… (Website, Medium, Substack)
As I argue in one of the posts in the handful above:
“...I wish to highlight the primary response typically pursued by the elite and that we are already bearing witness to, and will likely see much more of in the years ahead: opting to pursue increased complexity to address perceived problems.
Evidence would suggest that this is the exact opposite of what we should likely be attempting but we are pursuing it regardless. Unfortunately, in doing so we are exacerbating all of the negative aspects of growing complexity: inequality; specialisation (and thus interdependency, both nationally and internationally); mechanisms for sociobehavioural control; currency debasement; resource drawdown and concomitant environmental/ecological-systems destruction.
As Tainter suggests, these observations are important to us in the present since they can inform us as to what we are likely to face as our societies attempt to counter the consequences of diminishing returns and its numerous impacts upon us.
Scanning the media regularly over the past couple of decades would suggest that some of these societal collapse consequences have already taken place or begun to for some nation states and for some regions within nation states. This is not necessarily for the reason of diminishing returns in many but for the reason of geopolitics where power struggles have or are occurring, and for some where stronger powers have undercut the ruling elite to sow chaos–usually with the aim to fill the subsequent power vacuum and control the nation’s wealth and resources.
But even if we ignore such cases and focus upon seemingly strong nations, we can begin to see some of the collapse process unfolding. Certainly it would appear that central authority, or at least support for it, is breaking down for a number of nation states. Civic strife between opposing factions can be seen increasing in intensity, if not actual ‘battles’. Government revenues are faltering and the typical response of currency debasement is occurring to counter this. Resources are being redirected from the masses to the privileged few that sit atop the power and wealth structures of society. Supply chains are being disrupted due to trade disputes and other geopolitical maneuvering.
Many of these changes are being hidden or rationalised away as one-offs, or due to some nefarious ‘other’. But they are occurring nonetheless in a number of places, including supposed stable nations. It is only through willful ignorance that they are not perceived for what they are: signals of impending sociopolitical collapse due to an elite class attempting to offset diminishing returns on our investments in complexity.”
In that September 2023 post referenced in the beginning of this post, where I first wrote about housing, I argued that a move by my home province’s government was leveraging the story of a housing ‘crisis’ to help well-connected individuals/groups to flip land holdings and/or expand housing developments onto ecologically-sensitive (and previously restricted) land. The dominant narrative/story being spread far and wide was (and still is) that the unaffordability of housing is a direct result of a deficit of supply not meeting demand along with previously legislated restrictions that are holding up the obvious ‘solution’: a massive expansion of housing builds.
While my concern is primarily for my home province of Ontario, Canada, it seems that for quite a number of regions around the world the story is virtually identical: home buyers cannot afford to purchase/rent housing because there simply are not enough units in existence and regulations are restricting the expedient construction of more!!
Using the large language model AI Deepseek and the graphing AI Julius I gathered and analysed data on housing for Ontario and Canada in general. I asked a series of several dozen questions with a few additional bits of data as suggested by the programs to explore. Given some of the articles I’ve read over the past few years on housing issues in other nations, it seems clear that the issues discussed here are somewhat of a global phenomenon.
In general, the data would appear to support the argument that Ontario and Canada face an ‘affordability’ crisis and not a ‘supply’ crisis. And this ‘crisis’ would appear to be the result of institutional policy and pursuit of profit/revenue and not of inadequate supply to meet domestic family/individual needs. In fact, the data shows the opposite of the mainstream narrative: there is a positive correlation between housing unit supply and their prices–the greater the supply of housing units, the higher the cost of them becomes! That this runs counter to basic supply vs demand economics shows that something else is creating a housing ‘crisis’.
So, what specifically does the data say?
The supply of housing units has, for the past 100 years, been increasing on a steady pace and actually ahead of population increases on a unit per capita basis. Ever larger numbers of units per person have been occurring across Canada and Ontario with the rate of housing construction increase always outpacing population growth. The affordability of this housing, however, changed about 30 years ago not long after incomes began experiencing their long-term stagnation due to several recessions and the off-shoring of most relatively well-paying domestic, industrial employment.
Alongside this lack of income parity with general price inflation (and in the case of housing, significant price inflation) has been: an increase in the ‘commodification’ of housing and concomitant surge in ‘investors’ (primarily the wealthy elite, large corporations, private equity firms, and foreign ‘syndicates’ and individuals); the long-term suppression of interest rates allowing for an exponential increase in credit/debt availability (especially for those already with leverageable assets and large institutions); income for the top 10% surging while that for the bottom 90% languishing/stagnating (this is particularly true if one looks beyond the ‘average/mean’ incomes and focuses upon the modal or most common); and, additional pressure provided by significant increases in the number of immigrants entering Canada (with close to half taking up residence in Ontario).
As a result of all this, housing has not only become out of reach for the ‘average’ Canadian/Ontarian, it has become a financial asset concentrated in the hands of the top 10% of income-earners as well as large corporations and private equity firms. On top of this there has been increasing evidence that housing is being used as a means of foreign ‘syndicates’ and individuals to launder money and/or earn obscene profits.
The evidence seems quite clear to me to argue that the dominant and mainstream narrative being pushed by various institutions (including government, corporations, developers, financial, media, and academic–primarily economists) and uncritically accepted and regurgitated by most citizens is, frankly, bullshit. And I would further argue that the data shows rather clearly that the housing ‘crisis’ is being leveraged by policy- and decision-makers to further enrich the ruling caste.
If I were to summarise all of this I would lay the blame of this housing ‘affordability crisis’ on the shoulders of institutional decisions and policies that have led to the exponential divergence between housing prices and income. These include: suppression of interest rates; off-shoring of industry and their relatively well-paying jobs; massive influx of immigrants; leveraging of the issue by profiteers (and I include government here); commodification of housing; and, concentration of wealth assets in the hands of the ‘elite’.
There is much, much more to this ‘crisis’ than the supply and policy constraints that the mainstream narrative suggests; if supply is even a factor, given all the other variables and their significant impacts. Supply issues, however, will likely continue to receive the lion’s share of blame for this since it is the one that the elite can most easily: leverage to expand their revenue streams; help support the Ponzi that is our financialised economic systems; and, continue to pursue the infinite growth chalice.
I would argue that this situation is only going to get worse as our tumble down the Seneca Cliff picks up speed…prepare accordingly.
As I responded to another who suggested “Everything!” when I rhetorically commented on a Facebook post by our recently elected Prime Minister (extolling the desire “to make Canada an energy superpower” and the Energy Minister vowing “to fast-track infrastructure projects” in this vein) my standard comment to such nonsense–”Sure, infinite growth on a finite planet What could possibly go wrong?” :
“‘Collapse’ is a recurrent phenomenon in human pre/history. Unfortunately, our ruling class (as is typical) is doing the exact opposite of what is needed to mitigate our predicaments because of the ‘greed and stupidity’ of which you speak. They are focused upon protecting and possibly expanding the wealth-generation/-extraction systems that provide their revenue streams while selling their exploits to the masses as beneficial for them. As George Carlin so eloquently put it: It’s all bullshit, and it’s bad for ya!”
It should be added that with the more recent increase in interest rates, the rigged housing ‘game’ has slowed dramatically, with some suggesting a ‘bust’ is imminent. Many markets have experienced an increase in the number of units not selling along with some price stagnation and actual decreases. Unfortunately, alongside this has been an increase in the number of households experiencing financial hardship as they struggle to meet increasing mortgage payments (to say little about their difficulty with the general price inflation of the past few years, particularly of food). Despite this shift, institutional narratives have not changed and the need to expand and expedite the construction of millions of new housing units remains.
I continue to collate and reformat the detailed responses of both DeepSeek and Julius. I will be posting a link to this information here in the not too distant future for anyone who may be interested…hopefully in the next few days.
A handful of Canadian mainstream media articles on the housing ‘crisis’ (note that virtually all of them highlight that the main, if not only, ‘problem’ is one of supply vs demand and that the ‘solution’ is constructing millions of new units):|
Canadian government has to allow home prices to fall to make housing more affordable, experts say
Canada’s new housing minister doesn’t think prices need to come down
‘Financial landlords’ driving up rent prices in Toronto faster than other types of landlords: study
Conservatives want cities to cut development charges to drop housing costs
Mark Carney's to-do list is short but steep | CBC News
All eyes on housing crisis as government, opposition duel over who's to blame and how to fix it | CBC News
Billions to be announced for housing construction in federal fiscal update, says source | CBC News
Feds unlock public properties to build 29,200 housing units by 2029 | CBC News
More than 2,000 condos sitting empty in Metro Vancouver amid housing crisis - BC | Globalnews.ca
‘Completely unattainable’: Homeownership elusive for most young Ontarians, report finds | Globalnews.ca
Feds announce plans to develop public lands in Calgary for affordable housing | Globalnews.ca
Charles Hugh Smith has written extensively on the affordable housing issue. Here are links to a number of his articles on the subject:
Three Ways to Restore Housing Affordability
Unaffordable Housing and Homeless Encampments: How Did It Get This Bad?
Housing: The Foundations of the Middle Class Are Crumbling
The Problem Isn't a Housing Shortage, It's the Concentration of Ownership by the Wealthy
Here's Why Housing Is Unaffordable for the Bottom 90%
The Family Home: From Shelter to Asset to Liability
The U.S. Housing Market: Rent-Serfs and Artificial Scarcity
The Cost of Owning a Home Is Soaring
Also see articles by:
Wolf Richter who discusses Canada’s housing bubble on a monthly basis along with related topics: Canada | Wolf Street.
Michael Shedlock, who also discusses Canada’s economic situation on occasion: Canada; and especially: Home Affordability: Canada vs. US – MishTalk, a 2017 article that discusses the widening gap between income and housing prices–a situation that has become significantly worse since this was written (as evidenced by the data analysed in this Contemplation).
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.